In the dryland component of the study six different policy options were constructed to represent a broad range of possible approaches to achieving regional targets. The policy options tested ranged from approaches where actions aimed to restore and maintain the condition of natural resources could be implemented anywhere in the landscape without restriction (ie random), to highly strategic approaches which aimed to optimise multiple NRM benefit from actions while minimising costs.
Landscape futures were also analysed under five different scenarios for climate change (temperature and rainfall) and commodity prices for carbon credits (credits may be acquired through carbon sequestration under ecological restoration), biomass, and biofuels. These scenarios have a nominal time horizon of 2070 and included a baseline scenario based on current climate and commodity prices.
Policy options modelled in the dryland component of the Lower Murray Landscape Futures project.
Policy Options |
Short Description |
Go Anywhere |
Achieve regional targets by a non-strategic, non-targeted approach of locating NRM actions at random in the landscape |
Cheapest |
Minimise economic cost of achieving targets |
Best for Biodiversity |
Achieve biodiversity targets whilst maximising biodiversity benefits, achieve other targets using the Go Anywhere approach |
Best for NRM |
Achieve regional targets whilst maximising benefits for the multiple environmental objectives of biodiversity, deep drainage, wind erosion, and climate change |
Most Cost Effective |
Achieve regional targets whilst minimising economic cost relative to benefits for the multiple environmental objectives of biodiversity, deep drainage, wind erosion, and climate change |
Sustainability Ideal |
Achieve a new set of regional targets aimed at achieving sustainability whilst minimising economic cost relative to benefits for the multiple environmental objectives of biodiversity, deep drainage, wind erosion, and climate change |
Scenarios for climate regimes and commodity prices modelled in the dryland component of the Lower Murray Landscape Futures project.
|
Baseline |
Mild Warming/Drying |
Moderate Warming/Drying |
Severe Warming/Drying |
Mild Warming/Wetting |
Temperature |
Historical mean |
1oC warming |
2oC warming |
4oC warming |
1oC warming |
Rainfall |
Historical mean |
5% decrease |
15% decrease |
25% decrease |
5% increase |
Carbon Trading Price |
$0/tonne CO2e |
$15/tonne CO2e |
$7/tonne CO2e |
$2/tonne CO2e |
$15/tonne CO2e |
Biomass Price |
$0/tonne |
$50/tonne |
$40/tonne |
$30/tonne |
$50/tonne |
Biofuels Price |
0% current wheat/canola price |
150% current wheat/canola price |
130% current wheat/canola price |
110% current wheat/canola price |
150% current wheat/canola price |
|